Planners for the dawning of the
new millennium have concluded that inhabitants of the Chatham
Islands in the southwestern Pacific will be the first people
to watch the sun appear above the horizon in the early hours
of
January 1, 2000—New Zealand time.
One would suppose, then, that computers on these islands will
be the first to be munched by the Y2K bug, that Chatham elevators
will be the first to cease going up and down, and ATM machines
there will be the first to gag on double zeros in the year column.
Y2K. It's on its way for better or for worse, and many people
are convinced it will be more of the latter. But maybe there's
hope. On the World Wide Web's "Y2K Retreat" site an
entrepreneur appeals [sic]:
Do you have a safe refuge for you and your loved ones away
from the masses? A place that is safe from nuclear fallout, riots,
looting, and general anarchy, etc. A place where you have the
ability to grow or store your own food and live in peace with
your loved ones until the quality of life as we know it is restored
(1 yr. min., they say, possibly 2 yrs., in the worse case scenario.)
Perhaps this answer to the perceived problem is a little extreme,
but more than a few people are sprucing up the old fallout shelter
Dad built a few decades ago. It may be reassuring to note that
Pope John Paul II has proclaimed the year 2000 as a special holy
year. At least if computer systems around the world crash, the
pope's proclamation may engender enough civility to curb the
potential for violence.
The USA got a whiff of predicted January 1, 2000-style chaos
when, on December 8, 1998, millions in the San Francisco area
were affected by a power outage caused by a (non-computer) problem
at a Pacific Gas and Electric power substation. Transportation
was paralyzed during the morning rush, with subway trains halted
on their tracks and inside tunnels. Citizens directed traffic
at intersections where signals had stopped signalling. With computers
rendered powerless, financial markets closed, and flights had
to be diverted from the San Francisco International Airport.
In case you haven't read a newspaper or turned on a TV set during
the past year and don't know what all the fuss is about: In the
early years of data processing, computer programmers thought
they were being smart saving computer memory by using dates with
only two digits in the year, i.e., 12-31-99. Few might have predicted
these programs or parts of their code would remain in service
through the end of the century—or cost an estimated $6.4
billion to correct in the federal government alone.
The problem: If a computer fails to recognize the last two zeros
in 2000 as an actual value, it may get stuck in an endless loop,
causing lock-ups. Or, systems may recognize the 2000 as 1900
or some other previous date (many default to 1980) and wreck
electronic billing systems and time management systems, which
run continuously and rely on accurate dates and times to function
properly. The total cost to private industry is incalculable.
Kmart Corporation, to give just one example, expects to spend
$75 million to exterminate the Y2K bug in its systems.
Ordinary Americans could feel a sharper sting than getting an
incorrect phone bill or bank statement. Wall Street economist
Edward Yardeni, a reputable Y2K prognosticator, has said that
chances of a Y2K-related recession are between four and 60 percent.
"I would love to be wrong on this issue," Yardeni wrote.
"A recession could begin before January 1, 2000, perhaps
during the second half of 1999, if the public becomes alarmed
and takes precautions. If stock prices fall sharply in 1999,
in anticipation of a recession in 2000, the resulting loss of
confidence could cause consumers to retrench."
Ken Orgill, WVU's chief information technology officer, formed
a Y2K Task Force last year to assess the situation at the University
and formulate contingency plans. Areas of concern include desktop
computers, operating systems, software, building automation systems,
alarm and control systems, electrical/water/sewer systems, scientific
and lab equipment, telecommunications, computer networks, office
systems, vendors, and business partners. In short, just about
every electronic tool a research university uses to do its job.
WVU has two critical computer data systems that must not fall
into the Y2K pincers: human resources and financial management.
About 80 people are working rather feverishly to ensure that
before the Y2K bug can bite, WVU will have replaced much of the
software used in these operations with a new system based on
software developed by Oracle Corporation. Challenges remain in
bridging gaps between the Oracle programs and how actual financial
and human resources transactions work in West Virginia. These
problems must be corrected before June 31, 1999, because the
next WVU fiscal year that includes the year 2000 begins July
1—a full six months before any widespread panic occurs at
the calendar year's end.
Big guns are being rolled out to defend against the Y2K invasion.
WVU's bugproof systems will run on a new IBM RS/6000 SP supercomputer,
called Deep Blue and Gold because it is an advanced model of
the IBM Deep Blue computer that defeated chess master Garry Kasparoff
in 1997. The "gold" of the computer's nickname represents
both its superiority over Deep Blue and its location at the flagship
university of blue and gold West Virginia.
Orgill said that the potential for the Y2K dilemma to cause a
global economic downturn is not mere speculation. "It's
estimated that some $1 trillion is being spent on solving this
problem," he said. "This means that an enormous amount
of capital is being used just to keep things running—not
for upgrades, not for new equipment or infrastructure—just
to eliminate bugs in existing systems."
Orgill said that the impact will be diminished by "phasing
in" costs, and he doesn't believe in doomsday predictions
or that there will be any severe economic consequences. "I
especially don't believe the cataclysmic predictions, even the
relatively conservative ones," he said. "I think in
early January the world is going to say 'Okay, a few copiers
and elevators don't work, et cetera. But the world didn't end,
mission-critical systems such as air traffic control are doing
okay, and government operations such as the production of Social
Security and welfare checks are on track. So what was all the
hype about?'
"However, and this is important, my prediction is predicated
on the continued attention to the problem that we are currently
giving it. Which means we can't slack off in addressing it."
Orgill said WVU's new systems will be tested thoroughly before
time runs out. He noted that January 1, 2000 falling on a Saturday
offers a brief opportunity to make adjustments. "If we do
have problems, we'll have at least a day to deal with them before
the University reopens. I have a feeling we may have to have
some extra people working that weekend."
A day of grace may be of some benefit to harried computer programmers
and administrators. But we now must revise the adage that the
only inevitable things in life are death and taxes. Now, of course,
there's Y2K.
—Tim Terman
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